UI Brief

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South Korea’s Foreign Policy After Regime Change: The Rise of Pragmatic Diplomacy

Research This article examines the transformation of South Korea’s foreign policy following the impeachment of President Yoon Suk-yeol and the rise of President Lee Jae-myung. It argues that South Korean foreign policy can be understood through four relational “mirrors”: North Korea, the United States, Japan, and China, each of which has historically shaped South Korean national identity and continues to influence political divisions. Under Yoon, foreign policy was framed as “values-based diplomacy,” aligning South Korea with the U.S.-led liberal order, strengthening trilateral security cooperation with Japan, and taking a firmer stance toward North Korea and China. His declaration of martial law, widely viewed as contradicting the democratic values he espoused, intensified domestic divisions and deepened the crisis within the conservative camp. In contrast, Lee has advanced pragmatic diplomacy prioritizing national interest and economic stability. While maintaining the U.S.–Japan–South Korea framework, his administration seeks to recalibrate relations with major powers and manage domestic anti-China sentiment. This shift not only reflects the growing strain within South Korea’s conservative camp but may intensify it. If Lee succeeds in stabilizing the economy and reinforcing South Korea’s standing as a middle power, segments of the moderate conservative electorate may gradually gravitate toward Lee’s Democratic Party, reshaping South Korea’s political landscape and its foreign policy trajectory.

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Political Deadlock in Kosovo: Will New Elections Break It?

Research The parliamentary election held in Kosovo in February 2025 saw the governing Self‑Determination Movement (LVV) lose ground, eroding its de facto majority. Nine months later, no viable coalition had emerged, prompting the president to call a fresh election, scheduled for late December. Unlike equivalents in many European countries, Kosovo's party landscape is not shaped primarily by ideological divides. Instead, personal rivalries and historic animosities impede compromise and the formation of a stable parliamentary majority. The stalemate also underscores the broader challenge confronting the European Union in the Western Balkans. The EU seeks to promote democratic reforms and the incorporation of EU legislation in the region, particularly in Kosovo, while avoiding actions that could heighten tensions with neighbouring Serbia. This is an increasingly difficult balance to strike.

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Germany, NATO and Transatlantic Relations in Transition

Research Germany is confronting a 'double epochal shift' in European security driven by Russia’s war in Ukraine and the Trump administration’s uncertain commitment to the transatlantic alliance. The Merz coalition government has vowed to rebuild the Bundeswehr as Europe’s leading conventional force and to take a more proactive role in European defence. This policy brief assesses whether Germany can—and will—provide such leadership. It finds that while the German government has shown notable resolve in addressing long-standing deficiencies in its security and defence posture, including efforts to meet NATO’s new 5 percent capability target, significant obstacles remain. These include transforming Germany’s entrenched strategic culture and navigating a more polarized domestic political landscape. For partners like Sweden, Germany’s emergence as a central military actor offers strategic opportunities but also underscores the need for close coordination within NATO and the EU.

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What Are the Prospects for a Global Treaty on Critical Raw Materials?

Research Global demand for critical raw materials (CRMs) such as lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements is increasing due to clean energy transitions and advanced technologies. This has intensified strategic competition, with major powers framing CRMs as national security assets and adopting unilateral measures like export controls and bloc-based alliances. These dynamics risk sidelining environmental and human rights concerns, despite severe social and ecological impacts linked to mining. Colombia has proposed initiating negotiations for a global treaty on mineral traceability and accountability, scheduled for discussion at the UN Environment Assembly (UNEA-7) in December 2025. The draft resolution calls for establishing an expert group to explore options for a legally binding agreement modelled on the plastic treaty process. Its aim is to address environmental degradation, human rights violations, and governance gaps in CRM supply chains before demand pressures escalate further. While prospects for Colombia’s proposal are uncertain, UNEA-7 discussions could mark a critical milestone for advancing sustainable CRM governance.

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Accelerating EU-India Critical Tech Cooperation: Drivers for Digital Synergy

Research Critical technologies are increasingly vital to global economic and political collaboration and competition. Both the European Union (EU) and India have recognized the strategic importance of these technologies and have committed to enhancing their capabilities through bilateral cooperation. This policy brief assesses the current state of EU-India technology cooperation and analyses bilateral engagements between India and individual EU Member States. In order to build on what has already been achieved but also to foster a more structured, strategic, and impactful partnership in critical technology domains, the brief proposes to establish a Coalition of the Willing through the formation of a group of EU Member States with strong existing ties to India to lead collaborative efforts; to initiate a EU-India Tech Hub and establish a central platform to coordinate and scale joint technology initiatives; and to set up a EU-India Talent Exchange Program to facilitate mobility and skill-sharing in critical tech sectors to build human capital.

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Why the New Defence Boom in the EU Won’t Lead to a "European Defence Union"

Research Despite a surge in EU defence spending and the launch of the ambitious ReArm Europe package, this report argues that a true European Defence Union remains out of reach. Legal, political, and institutional constraints continue to limit the EU’s ability to act as a unified military power. Instead, the EU’s growing role in defence is rooted in its strengths as a market and regulatory actor. By leveraging its internal market, financial instruments and industrial policy, the EU is positioning itself as a key enabler of defence capacity — not a military alliance. Rather than competing with NATO, the EU is carving out a complementary role, focused on industrial coordination, procurement and mobility. This report explores the implications of this evolving role and outlines how the EU can best support European security without overreaching its institutional limits.

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Navigating South China Sea Tensions: The Philippines and Vietnam

Research The South China Sea’s strategic importance continues to rise alongside China's aggressive territorial claims. Vietnam and the Philippines respond differently—Manila with public pushback, Hanoi with silent resilience—but both are enhancing their military presence and cooperation. It highlights a growing alignment on security priorities, pointing to a trajectory of strengthened bilateral relations. This brief reveals how these seemingly separate approaches reflect growing alignment.

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Technological evolution, looming geopolitics: Embarking on 6G standards definition

Research The next generation of mobile networks will be 6G, with a global launch anticipated by 2030. Control over network infrastructure and the development of technical standards has become a critical strategic issue, carrying significant implications for both economic stability and national security. As the technical framework for 6G is defined, the path to consensus remains challenging, due to the large number of stakeholders involved. This paper explores the key obstacles on that path and delves into why the standardisation process is so vital. It also considers why, despite growing global competition, the emergence of a unified international standard remains a realistic outcome.

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6G: Cybersecurity and defence implications

Research While 6G is expected to enable technologies with significant benefits to societies, businesses and individuals, 6G may also introduce new cybersecurity challenges. 6G is expected to connect a vastly larger amount of devices to mobile networks, the attack surface is likely to grow. Further, 6G will likely enable true cyber-physical systems where digital disruptions can cause real-world damage. This paper explores the security implications of 6G through the lens of use-cases where incidents could cause significant damage. Given the importance of mobile networks for military use-cases, the potential impact of 6G on European defence is also briefly being addressed in the paper, with an emphasis on how 6G is poised to enable battlefield command, control and sensing.

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Geocultural Power in Foreign Policy

Research This policy brief explores the significance of geocultural power in understanding foreign policymaking in the Red Sea region. We exemplify with the case of the Ethiopian and Turkish governments, and how they invoke specific historical and cultural narratives in order to advance foreign policy objectives.

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Europe and the geopolitics of 6G

Research As global technological rivalry intensifies, 6G is poised to redefine power structures in telecommunications, with major implications for national security, economic leadership, and technological sovereignty. It is also one of the few remaining areas of strength for Europe, with China and the US otherwise dominating the tech scene. This report examines the geopolitical landscape of the battle for 6G, the stakes involved, and the positions of key actors, outlining possible scenarios for what a 6G future could look like. From a European vantage point, it argues how the EU can build on its strengths, accelerate its leadership in critical areas, and safeguard its interests using the economic security toolbox currently under development. ‘Europe and the geopolitics of 6G’ is the first in a series of in-depth analyses exploring the strategic, economic, and security dimensions of next-generation wireless technology. Future reports in this series will expand on key aspects of 6G development, including security challenges, regulatory frameworks, and the evolving standards that will shape the next era of digital connectivity. By providing critical insights into these issues, the series aims to inform policymakers, industry leaders, and researchers about the geopolitical stakes of 6G and the pathways toward the next generation of telecommunications. The 6G project at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs has been made possible by a grant from the Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

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China’s legacy chip buildout: A new EU strategic dependency that needs de-risking?

Older generations of semi-conductors, or "legacy chips", are now at the heart of the geopolitical rivalry between the US and China. The EU is worried about becoming too dependent on such chips from China, which are crucial for a wide range of sectors. The key issue is not overcapacity, but rather strategic importance. In this new UI Brief, Tim Rühlig argues that the EU should shift its focus from "protect" to combine it with "promote" and "partner" strategies. This means maintaining a strong global market share for European chip-makers, which includes ensuring access to the Chinese market. Additionally, the EU should diversify and expand the global supply of legacy chips by investing in third countries. Finally, it should bolster European technological strengths where they exist.

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Supporting LGBTI rights through development cooperation in times of authoritarian resistance

Research This UI brief explores how development cooperation can support the rights of LGBTI people amidst rising global opposition. It highlights advances like gender recognition laws and same-sex marriage, but also significant pushback, including Uganda’s 2023 Anti-Homosexuality Act and restrictive laws in Russia, Europe and the US. This resistance is often fueled by transnational conservative networks leveraging “traditional values” rhetoric or opposing “gender ideology”. Development policies that integrate SOGIE (sexual orientation, gender identity, and expression) can provide essential support to rights-defenders in hostile contexts, including funding, safe meeting spaces, facilitating networks and exchange of expertise. There are also risks, such as backlash from visibility-driven approaches. This UI brief advocates for long-term, locally-driven strategies, flexible funding, and engagement with diverse grassroots organizations. It cautions against imposing Western norms and priorities, and stresses the need to address colonial legacies. Recommendations include increasing funding, supporting locally-led initiatives, and ensuring consistent, sustainable efforts.

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The Elusive Global South

Research The concept the Global South has gained traction in recent years. It is widely used in policy debates and opinion pieces but also used in academic research. However, it is rarely defined either on its own or in relation to other concepts or groups. This brief explores what the concept means and whether there is unity in diversity.

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South Korea-Japan relations under two presidents

Research South Korea and Japan have had a strained relationship since Japan's colonial rule from 1910 to 1945. They normalized relations in 1965 but unresolved historical issues persisted. While both countries have deep military ties to the U.S. and view North Korea as an increasing threat, historical grievances have restricted closer cooperation. However, in the past two years, there has been a shift in the relationship. In times of regional developments worrisome to both countries, the will to work together seem to outweigh past resentments. This brief analyses the developments and impact of South Korea-Japan relations on regional security.

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Broken barriers: How Israel’s war in Gaza divides British domestic politics

Research Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent Israeli war on Gaza has elicited reactions across the globe. These responses have created or deepened political divisions in domestic politics in many countries. This brief examines the domestic political effects of the war in the United Kingdom. By examining parliamentary debates, statements by politicians and news articles during the first two months of the war the brief maps the positions and reasoning of British politicians and political parties. The conclusion is that the war in Gaza has had a substantial effect on the political discourse in the UK and has been a divisive issue, primarily for the Labour Party.

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Damned if You Do, Damned if You Don’t? Strategic Implications of Designating Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a Terrorist Organisation

Forskning This policy brief explores the complexities and consequences of the European Union (EU) potentially designating Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organisation. It provides background on the IRGC's significant influence within Iran and involvement in terrorist activities. The brief compares US and EU approaches to sanctions and outlines the legal criteria for such a designation. It evaluates the potential impact on the IRGC, including its economic activities and international relations, and the broader implications for the EU, such as judicial cooperation and diplomatic relations. The document concludes with strategic considerations and policy recommendations for the EU.

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The Dynamics of ‘Geopolitical Migration’ by Russians to the United Arab Emirates

Research The migration of Russians to the UAE is reshaping both geopolitical and social landscapes. The article delves into how Russian migrants, particularly from the middle class, are influencing sectors like real estate and technology in the UAE, thanks to the strategic neutrality and welcoming policies of the Gulf nation. This trend contributes to a complex dynamic of 'brain gain' for the UAE and 'brain drain' for Russia.

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Vietnam – the scope and limits of transition

Research Vietnam's dynamic journey of unorthodox development over recent decades has defied conventional expectations. Through the transformative Đổi Mới (Renovation) initiative in 1986, the nation diversified its economy, alleviating poverty and undergoing a profound socio-economic shift. Contrary to predictions, Vietnam has been able to maintain its authoritarian party-state form of government while embracing the dynamics of global capitalism. The country’s integration into the global economy, fuelled by foreign direct investment, has driven growth, and positioned Vietnam as an important middle-income player on the international stage. This brief examines the recent developments in Vietnam and shows Vietnam’s growing significance amid heightened tension and increased competition between Washington and Beijing.

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Economic sanctions – the hammer in the political toolbox

Research This brief examines the dominant discourse around economic sanctions as an economic and political tool. While providing an overview of the discourse it discusses the problems and highlights the political aspects. Changes in the global economic and political landscape give reason to believe that the sanctions tool is under transformation. This change affects both those targeted by sanctions, which are becoming increasingly immune, and those applying sanctions with the tool becoming available to new actors. The brief puts into question the view of economic sanctions as effective and desirable suggesting there is good reason for caution.

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Svensk exportkontroll i ett nytt säkerhetspolitiskt landskap

Forskning Förmågan för stater att kontrollera exporten av försvarsmateriel och känslig teknik är en central del av länders utrikes- och säkerhetspolitik. Den militära hjälpen till Ukraina, pausade leveranser av krigsmateriel till Turkiet från dess Natoallierade och den globala kampen om kritiska teknologier är färska exempel som har satt fokus på detta politiska verktyg. I denna policybrief analyseras de olika faktorer och utmaningar som svensk exportkontroll står inför och vad detta kan innebära för utvecklingen framöver.

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Bread as Politics – Food Insecurity in Egypt

Research This brief examines food insecurity in Egypt and what can be done to combat the issue in the long term. It discusses both internal political and economic vulnerabilities, as well as external challenges that have put additional pressure on Egypt’s food system. Climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have negatively impacted food prices in Egypt and other import-dependent countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. As Egypt’s economic crisis continues and people’s purchasing power is decreasing, more people are at risk of hunger and food insecurity.

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Why did the opposition win the Polish election?

Research This brief examines Poland’s October 2023 parliamentary election. After eight years of increasingly bitter conflict between the EU’s supranational institutions and Poland’s right-wing government, opposition parties look set to form the next government. An eclectic liberal-centrist-agrarian electoral coalition won over voters who wanted change but not a return to the pre-2015 status quo. The brief gives insight to how the opposition benefited from an increase in support and turnout in larger towns and among younger voters – but also from middle-aged electors.

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Japan in the eyes of the Swedish public: a friendly and trusted partner

Research Following the results from the Asian barometer survey presented in UI Report No.2:2022, this brief dives deeper the into the Swedish view of Japan. Overall, the survey results showed that the Swedish public has a positive view of Japan. This brief further examines Swedish perceptions of Japan by discussing how it is viewed in the public, in the media and how it is perceived in relation to politics and international relations.

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It's the economy, Pöhkö: The 2023 Finnish election in the shadow of accession to NATO

Research When Finns went to the polls in April 2023, their country was on the cusp of completing a momentous reorientation of its security policy. Yet Finland's impending accession to the NATO alliance played little part in the campaign. Nor, despite international media interest in the prime minister, Sanna Marin, did the campaign revolve primarily around her. Rather, the customary issues of public debt, tax and public issues were central.

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From market integration to security integration: Taking the next steps for European defence-industrial cooperation

Research This policy paper discusses how the war in Ukraine has started to transform and strengthen the role of the European Commission in European Union security and defence policy, in particular in the defenceindustrial domain. It also outlines the longterm ambitions of the EU and the European Commission in this area. Finally, it sets out some new ideas on EU defence cooperation.

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Why migration diplomacy matters for the 2023 Greek and Turkish elections

Research Migration diplomacy is the strategic use of migration flows to extract political and economic concessions. This policy brief examines the influence of migration diplomacy on national elections in Greece and Turkey in the light of the 2015–16 European migration crisis and the 2020 Greek-Turkish border crisis.

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Consolidation of power in Japan: The LDP and Shinzo Abe

Research In recent memory, there have been few Japanese political figures with Abe’s level of recognition and influence. At the same time, few Japanese politicians have been as successful or as divisive as Abe. This brief assesses the post-war domestic political climate in Japan under the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to understand how the party claimed such a firm grip on power and created a system that set the stage for Abe’s political career and rise to worldwide recognition.

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Prospects and limitations for a Quad Plus Europe

This brief discusses the Quad’s agenda and how its design is tailored to the Indo-Pacific. It argues that working with the Quad will entail individual, like-minded European and Indo-Pacific countries coordinating in ad hoc, flexible formats. Such arrangements should focus on niche issues where European countries and the EU have overlapping interests with Quad members, such as Indian Ocean and maritime security or ensuring cheap, high-quality, and reliable technologies to assist developing countries’ transition to renewable energy. It concludes with a set of policy recommendations on how to further this agenda.

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2022 Climate year in review

Research This brief reflects on the past year of international climate cooperation and at what it could tell us about the future of climate diplomacy. In addition to the results of the authors’ own research this brief builds on a workshop that took place at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI) in December 2022, organized with support from UI, titled: “After COP27, in what direction does climate cooperation go?”

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The Swedish Public’s Views of India: An Ambivalent Picture

This study of Swedish public opinion on India is a first of its kind in Europe. As such it could serve as a benchmark for documenting trends in such perceptions over time and across locations.

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Environmental colonialism in the Maghreb? Harnessing green energy on indigenous peoples’ land

Research The EU has been investing increasing amounts in North Africa’s renewable energy sector over the past decade in order to strengthen the union’s energy security and comply with climate agreement targets. To a large extent, this energy infrastructure has been developed in peripheral regions primarily inhabited by indigenous people. This policy brief looks at if, and how, the local population was consulted, compensated, and allowed to participate in the decision-making process surrounding the development of the solar energy complex Noor Ouarzazate.

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Screening Foreign Direct Investment: As important as it is challenging

Research Globalization has long been deemed a panacea for ensuring peace and prosperity for all. Increased weaponization of economic relations in recent years has however incentivized states to gain control over inward investment. As a result, actors have expanded or established investment screening procedures in a constant balancing act between ensuring national security and safeguarding open investment. The United States and the European Union are leading in this regard, while Sweden is yet to establish such a mechanism.

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Norway’s Foreign and Security Policy: A Challenging Mix of Realism and Idealism

Forskning This policy brief reviews what conflicts in its foreign policy roles Norway may face in a time of increasing security instability. The potential conflicts are discussed in relation to Norway’s NATO membership, integration in EU defence and security policies, Nordic cooperation, and security policy towards the High North.

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Sweden’s Foreign and Security Policy in a Time of Flux

Forskning This policy brief looks at key Swedish foreign and security policy priorities in the Nordic, Europe and across the Atlantic, in a time of great instability and change. With the decision to apply for membership in NATO, Swedish security policy has undergone a complete reversal. At the same time, uncertainty remains regarding whether deeper engagement in the transatlantic, EU, and Nordic arenas can be unified into a single coherent Swedish foreign policy doctrine.

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Denmark's Foreign and Security Policy: Perfecting the Balance Between an Atlantic, Nordic, and European Outlook

Forskning This policy brief reviews the ongoing shift in Denmark’s foreign and security policy in the light of the geopolitical turn in international politics. It places particular focus on Denmark’s role in NATO and in the Arctic region, as well as its relationship with the US, the EU and its Nordic neighbours.

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Finland's Foreign and Security Policy: From Bridge-Building to the Core of the West

Forskning This UI Brief analyses central themes in Finnish foreign and security policy, playing out in the Arctic, Nordics, in Europe and across the Atlantic. The different themes are analysed against the background of the most serious security challenge since the end of WWII, following upon Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

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Russia in the Arctic: Ambitions and Constraints

Forskning This paper gives an overview of Russia's current military, economic and environmental policy in the Arctic. It also covers relations with the West and, to some extent, Asian states in the region.

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In Vain Search for Accountability: The Crises of the Lebanese State

Research This UI brief explores the current crises in Lebanon - the financial meltdown, the Beirut port explosion and COVID-19 - through the lens of accountability. It examines where tensions are today, and the risks that are associated with the lack of accountability in the accounted crises, and stresses the importance of the international community to act in support of the Lebanese people.

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Longtime Democrat, Future Leader: The Particular Logic of Japan's Values Discourse

Research This UI Brief analyses the values discourse emphasizing democracy, human rights, the rule of law and freedom used by the Japanese government. It finds that the discourse is constituted by language that portrays Japan as a long-time democrat, and a desired leader on the international stage.

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Indian Perspectives on Human Rights and the Implications for Sweden and the EU

Research This UI Brief explores the Indian view on human rights from three perspectives; its ideological underpinnings, the relative weight given to human rights treaties and national legislation, and cooperation on human rights in multilateral institutions.

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Afghanistan: The Problems with Aid Dependency and the Need for a Plan B

Research This UI Brief reviews the lessons learned from 20 years of providing aid to Afghanistan. It argues that donors must work harder to establish indigenous ownership and develop plans for when circumstances rapidly change, so that the situation of an escalating humanitarian crisis can be avoided in the future.

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A Geopolitical Awakening? The Future of German Statecraft

Research This UI Brief gives an overview of how German geopolitics is discussed among officials, politicians and international think tanks in connection to the German federal election 2021.

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The Return of the Hirak Movement and the June Legislative Elections: What Path for Algeria?

Research This UI Brief explores the history of the Hirak, the backdrop to the Algerian economic crisis, and the June legislative elections and their consequences.

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The Impacts of Corruption on Lebanon’s Public Health

Research This UI Brief aims to analyse how corruption in Lebanon affects public health and the healthcare system. Who is able to access and has the right to good quality public healthcare?

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Economic Diversification and the Youth Population in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia: Double Dividend or Double Jeopardy?

Research Oil has shaped the social contract between the state and its citizens, how will the transition to a more diverse economy affect state-society relations? This UI Brief aim to explore the economic transitions of two monarchies facing urgent pressure to reform, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, in order to shed light on the main drivers of and obstacles to transition.

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China, Europe and the New Power Competition over Technical Standards

Research This UI Brief explores how technical standardization is a source of economic, legal, political and discursive power in international relations, and summarizes China’s increasing standardization power. It includes a discussion of the implications for the EU, outlines various scenarios and makes policy recommendations for Europe.

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From the Russian Constitution to Putin’s Constitution: Legal and Political Implications of the 2020 Constitutional Reform

Research In addition to the constitutional reform, 2020 has also been characterized by extensive amendments to Russia’s electoral law, which can only be understood in the context of the concurrent constitutional transformation. This brief describes the most significant amendments and analyses the consequences they are likely to have for future political developments.

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Putin’s New Russia Following Constitutional Reform - The View from Kyiv

Research Russia’s recent domestic political changes and the new constitutional reform will not only have far-reaching implications for the Russian population. The changes will also have certain repercussions for Moscow’s stance on foreign affairs, above all its attitude to Ukraine and other post-Soviet states. What does Russia’s ongoing transmutation mean for Ukraine and for other post-Soviet states?

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Ukraine’s Far Right Today - Continuing Electoral Impotence and Growing Uncivil Society

Research Ukraine’s system of political parties has since the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991 featured a small number of far-right political parties. How strong is the Ukrainian far right movement today? How has the movement performed in the recent Ukrainian elections and which role does the movement play in the Ukrainian civil society?

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Korean Reunification - Can the Dream Be Realized?

Research This UI Brief analyses the prospects for Korean reunification and the problems that might be expected should reunification take place. Although the unprecedented pace of inter-Korean toplevel summitry in 2018 gave rise to new hopes of a united Korea, it points out that the fundamental obstacles to reunification remain.

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Securing a Shared Neighbourhood: The European Union and India as Partners for Security in Africa

Research The strategic partnership between the European Union (EU) and India has been reignited in recent years. However, in one area in particular – security cooperation – the EU and India are yet to become true partners. This brief examines the potential for deeper security cooperation on Africa, which is a “shared neighbourhood” of the EU and India.

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Ukraine’s 2019 Elections and the Rise of a New Political Guard

Research This UI Brief analyzes the implications of the dramatic alteration of Ukraine’s political landscape that followed the country’s presidential and parliamentary elections in 2019, when power was concentrated in the hands of a single political group in an unprecedented way. Gorchinskaya, K. (2019) Ukraine’s 2019 Elections and the Rise of a New Political Guard. UI Brief no. 6, October 2019.

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Development, digitalization and disinformation in Myanmar

Research The atrocities committed against the Rohingya population in Myanmar is the only example thus far of a social media company, Facebook, being accused of having played a part in genocide. The liberal reforms initiated by the military regime in 2011, sparked one of the world’s fastest digital transformations. Protracted conflicts offline have transitioned into the online space, exacerbated by algorithms and social media platforms. Schulman, S. (2019) Development, digitalization and disinformation in Myanmar. UI Brief no. 5, September 2019.

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China’s propaganda campaign in Sweden, 2018–2019

Research Since early 2018, China’s government and its embassy in Stockholm have been conducting an intense campaign of public criticism of Swedish media outlets, journalists, scholars, human rights activists, political parties and authorities. Jerdén, B. & Bohman, V. (2019) China’s propaganda campaign in Sweden, 2018–2019. UI Brief no. 4, June 2019.

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Russia’s defense sector: An economic perspective

Research The highly emotional, and therefore alarmist, perception of today’s Russia, makes it difficult to assess the real technological and productive potential of the Russian defense-industrial complex.Inozemtsev, V. (2019) Russia’s defense sector: An economic perspective. UI Brief no. 3, May 2019.

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China’s standard power and its geopolitical implications for Europe

Research Technical standardization is turning into an area of geopolitical conflict between China and the West. This carries far-reaching implications, not least for the EU, in terms of security, economics and global technological norms. Fägersten, B. & Rühlig, T. (2019) China’s standard power and its geopolitical implications for Europe. UI Brief no. 2, March 2019.

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A tenuous trilateral? Russia-India-China relations in a changing world order

Research Russia, India and China constitute the three most important “non-Western” powers and their impact on regional and global affairs is significant. Policymakers in Europe should therefore pay close attention to developments among Russia, India and China, and especially regarding bilateral developments between them, as these will have consequences for Europe’s relations with all three states, separate but also collectively. Weidacher Hsiung, C. (2019) A tenuous trilateral? Russia-India-China relations in a changing world order. UI Brief no. 1, March 2019.

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Sweden and European defence cooperation: interests in search of a strategy

Research Sweden’s relationship with European defence cooperation has long been defined by ambiguity and complexity, but there is reason to believe that Sweden’s position may change in the near future.This policy brief outlines Sweden’s cautious rapprochement with the policy area and explains why its position may change. Fägersten, B., Danielson, A. & Håkansson, C. (2018) Sweden and European defence cooperation: interests in search of a strategy. UI Brief no. 10, December 2018.

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Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union: Between Bilateral and Multilateral Relations

Research This UI Brief is about the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), the first relatively successful attempt to establish strong multilateral institutions for post-Soviet regional integration. Busygina, I. and Filippov, M. (2018) Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union: Between Bilateral and Multilateral Relations. UI Brief no. 9, November 2018.

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Сhina's impact on Russia’s economy

Research The author states that China’s influence on the Russian economy is humongous and reaches far beyond the traditional issues of trade and investment.Inozemtsev elaborates a systemic look at the issue, focusing on several dimensions of China’s role. Inozemtsev, V. (2018) Сhina's impact on Russia’s economy. UI Brief no. 8, August 2018.

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Authoritarian at home and impulsive abroad - Erdoğan’s foreign policy in the Middle East

Research This UI Brief examines Turkey's role as a player in the Middle East, which has changed dramatically during the last years, as it has gone from being viewed as a role model to a problem maker in the region. Hammargren, B. (2018) Authoritarian at home and impulsive abroad - Erdoğan’s foreign policy in the Middle East. UI Brief no. 7, June 2018.

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Resilience Against Influence Operations in the Eastern Partnership Countries

Research This UI Brief examines the external threat environment, the associated risks, and how these interact with and influence local developments in the Eastern Partnership countries.

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The Strategic Rationale for European Engagement in China’s Belt and Road Initiative

Research In this Brief, Viking Bohman and Christer Ljungwall argue that Europe has clear strategic gains to make from adopting a more proactive approach toward China's Belt and Road Initiative.

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From Emerging Market to Emerging Power: Rethinking Sweden’s India Policy

Research In this UI Brief Henrik Chetan Aspengren makes suggesions on why and how Sweden should rethink its engagement with India.

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The impact of forced migration on Afghanistan’s domestic politics and foreign relations

Research This brief shows how forced migration from Afghanistan has become integral to the domestic politics and foreign relations of Afghanistan.

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The future of the French-German axis and its implications for European security and defence

Research This brief identifies four potential future scenarios for the Franco-German axis and their implications for European security and defence. Based on these scenarios and their drivers, it develops elements of a strategy toolbox to influence developments in a desirable direction. Major, C., Mölling, C. & Höltmann, G. (2018) The future of the French-German axis and its implications for European security and defence. UI Brief no. 2, February 2018.

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UK foreign and security policy post-Brexit: The search for a European Strategy

Research How will Brexit impact on European security and what will the UKs European strategy look like post-Brexit? The scope of the impact of Brexit on European foreign and security policy relationships will be determined by a number of factors and gives rise to prospective scenarios explored in this paper. Whitman, Richard G. (2018) UK foreign and security policy post-Brexit: The search for a European Strategy. UI Brief no. 1, February 2018. Listen to Richard Whitman present at the seminar 'The future of European security and defense — challenges and pathways' on our UI Podcast.

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Pakistans ekonomi går bra men den politiska krisen djupnar

Forskning Den politiska utvecklingen i Pakistan går stick i stäv med landets ekonomiska utveckling.

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The deceptive promise of Xi Jinping’s control?

Research The 19th Chinese Communist Party Congress and its implications for the “new era”

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The North Korean Nuclear Dilemma: Is Asia Heading Towards Armed Conflict?

Research An Address to the Swedish Institute of International Affairs August 31, 2017.

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The United States and China: Ruptures and Realignments in Trump’s First Six Months

Research Donald Trump’s election as president of the United States in late 2016 brought expectations of radical departures in US politics and foreign policy. Of all the candidates – Republican and Democrat – Trump was the most vocal on China during his campaign.

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Transatlantic turbulence – implications for European security

Research This report illuminates the driving forces and logic behind two separate but interlinked events: the Trump administration’s foreign policy agenda and the UK’s decision to leave the European Union.

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Cybersecurity: the effects of Trump presidency and Brexit

Research The cybersecurity challenges facing Europe today and in the future are many and complex.

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Resilience: Shared, and Forward

Research The notion of ‘resilience’ is gaining currency in European and Euro-Atlantic security policy discussions.

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Defence and crisis management: scenarios and future development

Research This short paper looks into how defence and crisis management in Europe are affected by the new US administration and Brexit.

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Intelligence: safeguarding future cooperation

Research Intelligence cooperation is not only a field of cooperation in its own right, but also a necessary contribution to areas of joint action such as crisis management, counterterrorism and strategic planning.

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Brexit, Security and Defence: A political problem, not a military one

Research In the realm of security and defense, Brexit is likely to reduce the Europeans’ political capacity to act. However, their overall military capacity to act (that is, the European set of armed forces) is unlikely to suffer much.

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Transatlantic turbulence and European security* – Effects of President Trump’s foreign policy agenda and Brexit

Research The people in one of the European Union’s most powerful member states, the United Kingdom, have chosen to leave the EU and the President of the EU’s most powerful partner, the United States of America, has yet to show any sympathy for European integration. What does this dual shock of transatlantic turbulence – Brexit and President Donald Trump’s foreign policy – mean for European security?

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Trump's Jacksonian Foreign Policy and its Implications for European Security

Research To understand what is likely to drive Trump, it is important to understand the domestic context in which he operates. Efforts to categorize him as isolationist or internationalist, hawk or dove, realist or idealist do little to help one understand Trump's domestic political base, which serves as the starting point to understand his foreign and security policies. After all, it's the politics, stupid.

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Moldovas Election of a pro-Russian President: Implications for Europe

Research In November 2016, Moldova elected Igor Dodon as president in the first presidential elections since 1996. In his campaign, Dodon promised to restore Moldova’s relations with Russia and possibly revoke the Association Agreement (AA) with the European Union.

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The Migration Referendum in Hungary

Research The referendum is formally a reaction to a package of proposals concerning the reformation of the European Union’s policies in the area of migration and asylum. One of the suggested measures included in the package is a relocation scheme for refugees, setting up mandatory quotas for each Member State.

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China and the 2016 US Presidential Debates: Curiosities and Contradictions

Research Few, if any, presidential elections in US history have been won or lost over China, even in the modern era.

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A new normal for NATO and Baltic Sea security

Research Although movements are limited, the prospects of Sweden and Finland joining NATO attracts a lot of attention.

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Peacemaking in Syria: Barriers and Opportunities

Research This brief describes past and ongoing mediation attempts, analyzes the reasons behind their failure, and discusses the prospects of mediation in light of the current political landscape.

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Putin’s International Supporters

Research President Vladimir Putin is a controversial figure in international politics. He has cultivated a very specific image for the Russian publics, a no nonsense leader and man of action, maintaining a healthy lifestyle and a patriotic guardian of Russia.

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Corporate Social Responsibility 2014 Business as usual?

Research There is today a widespread international recognition that the business sector and not only states have responsibilities as regards the respect for social and human rights. Several regulatory initiatives have emerged resulting in numerous guidelines applying to all enterprises ranging from Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) to large Multinational Enterprises (MNEs)/ Multinational Corporations (MNCs).

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Huntington's "Clash of Civilizations" and Russia

Research Harvard Professor Samuel P. Huntington’s well-known theory on the culturally rooted clash of civilizations has retained its topicality since it was first launched in 1993.