NATO and the Future of Arctic Security

The NATO Ankara Summit confirmed that the alliance is making important progress on its approach to Arctic security. Increased defence spending is underpinning the acquisition of new capabilities. This is occurring alongside an enhanced operational presence, and the steady integration of Sweden and Finland. However, measures designed to placate US President Donald Trump over the Greenland question, and the focus on European (but not specifically Arctic) threat assessments and interests, are overly shaping the allied response to the region’s security developments. With Arctic security set to undergo far-reaching shifts in the decades ahead – due to climate change, the growing engagement of hostile actors, and emerging defence and dual-use technologies – NATO needs a forward-looking Arctic policy built on shared security interests and geographies. Such a policy should position the alliance to anticipate emerging regional threats and challenges. It should also set out effective responses that can ensure coordinated deterrence and defence in the Arctic as the region undergoes significant political and environmental change.