Germany, NATO and Transatlantic Relations in Transition

Germany is confronting a 'double epochal shift' in European security driven by Russia’s war in Ukraine and the Trump administration’s uncertain commitment to the transatlantic alliance. The Merz coalition government has vowed to rebuild the Bundeswehr as Europe’s leading conventional force and to take a more proactive role in European defence. This policy brief assesses whether Germany can—and will—provide such leadership. It finds that while the German government has shown notable resolve in addressing long-standing deficiencies in its security and defence posture, including efforts to meet NATO’s new 5 percent capability target, significant obstacles remain. These include transforming Germany’s entrenched strategic culture and navigating a more polarized domestic political landscape. For partners like Sweden, Germany’s emergence as a central military actor offers strategic opportunities but also underscores the need for close coordination within NATO and the EU.